Hjemme godt, men ude også godt måske?

Nu nærmer tiden sig for knald eller fald kampene i Champions og Europa League. I den forbindelse tales der meget om at det er en fordel at starte ude, således at man har hjemmebane i den afgørende kamp. Men hvad siger statistikken om dette emne?

Jo, svaret er faktisk ikke så entydigt klart som man skulle tro. Som udgangspunkt er der dog ikke så meget at rafle om. Hvis man ser på de seneste tre slutspil i Champions League er holdet med hjemmebane i sidste kamp gået videre i 29 ud af 42 kampe (69%).

Det tyder jo på et overvældende bevis på at det er en stor fordel med den hjemmekamp. Men hvad hvis vi tager forbehold for at et af holdene er favorit, og måske ville være gået videre også selvom man ikke havde haft hjemmekampen. Ja, så bliver det straks mere indviklet

I min optælling, og dermed også min vurdering, var der 8 kampe, hvor der ikke var en klar favorit. Disse er faldet ud således ...

... at holdet med udebane i sidste kamp gik videre i 6 tilfælde, svarende til hele 75%. Det er altså stik modsat det samlede billede, og isoleret målt på disse, indrømmet få observationer, er det ligefrem en fordel at have udebane i sidste kamp.

Og kigger vi på kampe hvor holdet med udebane i den sidste kamp var favorit til at gå videre, så forholder det sig sådan ...

... at holdet med hjemmebane gik videre i 4 ud af 6 kampe (2/3) , Her må man dog ligeledes passe på, da der jo er tale om meget få observationer. 

Kun i det tilfælde hvor holdet med hjemmebane i sidste kamp var favorit, er statistikken klart på "mytens" side, idet holdet med hjemmebane i sidste kamp her gik videre i hele 25 ud af 28 tilfælde, eller overvældende 89%.

Dermed kan man sige, med det in mente at der er tale om få observationer, at statistisk set er det ikke så meget det med hjemmebanen der slår igennem, men mere om man er favorit eller ej.

Som det fremgår af diagrammet, så er det faktisk ret sjældent at favoritten ikke går videre. I min optælling sker det kun i 5 ud af 34 tilfælde (altså samlet set af de kampe hvor der var en favorit), svarende til sølle 14,7%. 

Hvad tænker I? Er ideen om fordelen ved hjemmebane i den sidste kamp en myte som hermed er punkteret, eller kræver det et større datamateriale for at kunne konkludere. Og er det overhovedet en fair måde at gøre det op på?

Regnearket med alle kampene kan læses her

Romeo and Juliet

Romeo and Juliet

By William Shakespeare

A rewritten version by Peter Dam*

Narrator

Instructions

Many years ago in Verona, Italy, there were two families.

The Capulets enter the stage.

Mr. Capulet, Juliet and Tybalt: “We are the Capulets.”

Juliet: “Hi, I am Juliet.”

Mr. Capulet: “Hallo, I am Mr. Capulet, Juliet’s father”

Tybalt: “Yo, what’s up. I’m Tybalt, Juliet’s cousin”

The Montagues enter the stage.

Romeo and Mrs. Montague: “We are the Montagues.”

Mrs. Montague: “Hallo, I am Mrs. Montague, Romeo’s mother”.

Romeo: “Hi there, I’m Romeo”.

These families are always fighting. 

Everybody: The two families come onto the stage and starts to shout at each other

One night the Capulets have a party and Romeo goes. 

The Capulets dance. 

Romeo joins the dance and looks at Juliet.

He meets Juliet and they look at each other and smile.

Juliet’s cousin, Tybalt, sees them and is very angry.

Tybalt walks away from the rest, looks at the audience with an angry face, while he closes his fist and points at Romeo.

Romeo stares back at Tybalt with angry eyes

Juliet looks at the audience

Juliet: “Oh Romeo, why are you a Montague?”

Romeo goes to Juliet and everybody else leaves the stage

Romeo: “It doesn’t matter Juliet. Will you marry me?”

Juliet: “Oh, yes Romeo, I would love to”

They know that their families will be very angry so they go to Friar Lawrence and are married in secret.

Friar Lawrence stands on the right side of the stage, and Romeo and Juliet joins him.

Friar Lawrence: “Do you, Romeo Montague, take this Juliet Capulet, to be your lawfully wedded wife?”

Romeo: “I do”

Friar Lawrence: “Do you, Juliet Capulet, take this Romeo Montague, to be your lawfully wedded husband?” 

Juliet: “I do”

Friar Lawrence “I now pronounce you husband and wife”

The next day, Tybalt sees Romeo.

He is still angry with Romeo and wants

to fight him.

Tybalt: “Hey Romeo, come over here and I’ll beat you up”

Romeo doesn’t want to fight but his best friend, Mercutio, does.

Romeo: “ Come on, Tybalt. Take it easy. Can’t we talk about this?”

Mercutio comes on stage and says to Romeo. 

Mercutio: “If you won’t fight him, I will!”

Mercutio fights Tybalt. 

Mercutio and Tybalt fight with swords

Tybalt kills Mercutio! 

Mercutio falls to the floor and dies

Romeo sees this and is very angry

Romeo: “What have you done, you bastard?”

Romeo picks up Mercutio’s sword and stabs Tybalt.  

Tybalt falls to the floor and dies

The Prince of Verona comes on stage 

The Prince of Verona: “What have you done Romeo? You must leave the city at once!!!”

The Prince of Verona points with his finger that Romeo must go.

Romeo goes down through the audience and walks out the door.

Everybody leaves and Juliet comes on to the stage. Friar Lawrence stands on the right side of the stage holding af little bottle.

Juliet goes to Friar Lawrence for help.

Friar Lawrence: “Here is a special drink. You will sleep for two days. Your family will think you are dead but you will wake up. Then you and Romeo can be free together.”

Juliet drinks from the bottle, and lies down to sleep.

Friar Lawrence sends Romeo a letter to tell him the plan. 

But Romeo doesn’t get the message. 

He hears that Juliet is dead!

Romeo is so upset he buys some poison and goes to see Juliet.

Romeo enters the stage with the sleeping Juliet, sees her and starts to cry. He takes a small bottle and drinks from it.

Romeo “Now I will stay with you forever”.

Romeo drinks the poison, and dies. 

Juliet wakes up and sees what happened.

Juliet wakes up, sees the dead Romeo and cries as well.

Juliet: “Oh no! You didn’t leave any poison for me but here is your knife.”

Juliet stabs herself and dies

Romeo and Juliet are both dead. 

The curtain closes and Romeo and Juliet leaves the stage.

Friar Lawrence, Mr. Capulets and Mrs. Montague go to the stage

The curtain is drawn

Friar Lawrence: “It saddens me to tell you that your dear children have died. I am very sorry”

Mr. Capulet: “Oh no. This cannot be”

Mrs. Montague (crying): “My dear Romeo. Oh why? Why?”

Mr. Capulet: “Mrs. Montague, we must promise each other not to fight anymore”

Mrs. Montague: “Yes, you are right”

Mr. Capulet and Mrs. Montague shake hands and hug each other

THE END